The Post-Raila Vacuum: 5 Leaders Fighting for the 5 Million ‘Baba’ Votes

Raila Odinga died in 2025 at age 80 and left behind the biggest political vacuum Kenya has seen in decades. The Enigma was one of a kind. Nobody replaces Baba. But that harsh reality has not stopped ambitious politicians from fighting over his 5 million loyal voters like vultures circling a fresh kill. I watched this drama unfold immediately after his death in India when Ruto quickly positioned himself to claim those votes because Raila had joined the broad-based government in his final months. Then Oburu Odinga grabbed ODM leadership and the party immediately cracked into two opposing camps. Pro-government elders on one side. Angry youth leaders on the other side fighting to reclaim what they see as their political birthright.

Babu Owino Leads Youth Charge Against Sakaja

Babu Owino stands out as the most aggressive voice in the youth rebellion. The fiery Embakasi East MP has openly positioned himself to challenge Johnson Sakaja for Nairobi Governor in 2027. Recent polls show Babu pulling ahead while Sakaja’s popularity continues free-falling among city voters. Babu talks exactly like Raila used to talk back in the day. Street language that connects with matatu touts. Youth energy that fills rallies. Zero tolerance for confrontation. He understands perfectly that Nairobi represents the ultimate political prize in Kenya. Win City Hall and suddenly you control the national narrative that reaches every corner of Luo land and beyond. Sakaja looks increasingly vulnerable and Babu smells political blood in the water.

Winnie Odinga Carries Irreplaceable Family Name

Winnie Odinga brings something nobody else in this fight possesses: the actual Odinga family name that still commands automatic emotional loyalty from millions of Raila’s traditional voters. As Baba’s daughter she automatically inherits sympathy votes plus genuine respect from women and youth across Nyanza and Nairobi. Winnie challenges party elders alongside Babu Owino and Edwin Sifuna while positioning herself for major political action. Her exact 2027 seat remains unclear but Nairobi clearly calls loudest whether that becomes governor, senator, woman rep, or some other high-profile position. Party elders view her ambition as dangerous overreach. Regular Raila voters see natural family succession playing out before their eyes.

Edwin Sifuna Runs The Party Machine

Edwin Sifuna serves dual roles as Nairobi Senator and ODM Secretary General which gives him unmatched organizational power in this succession battle. He leads youth faction operations while preparing to defend his senate seat in 2027 against all challengers. Sifuna brings Raila-style sharp legal arguments combined with modern social media mastery that reaches millions of urban voters instantly. Nairobi responds strongly to his consistent attacks against Ruto’s government policies and leadership style. If the youth faction successfully takes control of ODM from the elders then Sifuna immediately becomes the public face of the renewed party. Party secretary general controls nominations across all Luo strongholds which means controlling candidates everywhere that matters most.

James Orengo Anchors Nyanza Political Heartland

James Orengo represents intellectual and revolutionary continuity from Raila’s generation into the next political era. The Siaya Senator demands ODM fields its own presidential candidate in 2027 while positioning himself strongly for governor seat in his home county. Rural Luo voters respect Orengo’s decades-long history fighting alongside Raila during the darkest days of handcuffs era and detention without trial. He perfectly bridges old guard revolutionary wisdom with the fresh energy coming from younger leaders like Babu and Sifuna. Siaya County remains Orengo’s unbreakable stronghold. Control Nyanza political heartland and suddenly you anchor Raila’s most reliable traditional voter base for generations to come.

Gladys Wanga Bets Everything On Ruto Alliance

Gladys Wanga plays the ultimate pragmatist card in this succession battle. Homa Bay Governor and current ODM chair maintains complete loyalty to Ruto’s government while positioning herself as frontrunner for his female running mate promise ahead of 2027 elections. Youth leaders openly call her sellout and traitor to Raila’s revolutionary legacy. Elders protect her fiercely because she represents their bridge to state house power. Wanga’s political calculation makes perfect sense on paper. Ruto wins 2027 presidential election with Wanga serving as deputy president. She immediately inherits complete control over government wing of ODM voters who accepted broad-based government reality during Raila’s final months. Risky gamble. Completely logical.

ODM Split Happened Lightning Fast After India Death

The ODM fracture happened immediately after Raila’s death in India when Oburu Odinga seized party chairmanship position and consolidated power among loyal elders. Mama Ida Odinga accepting UNEP ambassador appointment last week confirmed pro-government direction beyond any reasonable doubt. Youth faction responded with lightning speed organizing rallies across Nairobi, launching massive social media campaigns targeting elder leadership, and issuing direct ultimatums demanding party control. Babu Owino handled all street mobilization efforts bringing thousands into streets. Winnie Odinga provided crucial family blessing that legitimized entire youth movement. Sifuna managed complex party logistics and nomination processes. Orengo wrote detailed position papers defending ideological purity against Ruto compromise.

Ruto Enjoys Massive Short Term Advantage

President Ruto currently enjoys tremendous short-term advantage from this ODM chaos because Raila joined broad-based government during final months before death which pulled significant Luo support toward Kenya Kwanza coalition. Wanga serving as ODM chairwoman cements that critical political bridge between former rivals. Mama Ida’s UNEP ambassador appointment seals family pragmatism deal completely. But Ruto faces serious long-term problem because youth faction absolutely hates him with passion. Babu Owino calls Ruto dictator multiple times daily across all platforms. Sifuna litigates against government policies weekly in courtrooms. Winnie mobilizes women voters against Ruto everywhere she speaks. Orengo writes comprehensive manifestos attacking current administration.

2027 Election Chaos Becomes Inevitable Reality

Nobody realistically captures all 5 million Raila votes because Baba represented completely unique phenomenon in Kenyan politics. Votes split naturally across multiple directions. Babu Owino dominates Nairobi youth demographic completely. Winnie Odinga captures loyal family supporters everywhere. Sifuna organizes sophisticated urban middle class voters. Orengo locks down rural Nyanza base permanently. Wanga delivers government converts who accepted political reality. Nairobi transforms into fiercest battleground with Babu challenging Sakaja directly for governor position while Sifuna defends senate seat aggressively. Winnie circles high-profile Nairobi opportunities watching carefully. Siaya County remains Orengo unbreakable territory. Homa Bay becomes ultimate test of Wanga’s divided loyalties between party elders and national government.

Raila Voters Know Exactly What They Want

Baba’s traditional base splits naturally between youth demanding defiance like 1990s protest movements versus elders embracing pragmatism through broad-based government arrangements. Both sides legitimately claim portions of Raila’s complicated political legacy. Raila survived multiple assassinations, endured years of jail time, lost five presidential elections yet somehow maintained unbreakable voter loyalty through sheer force of personality and revolutionary credibility. Current leadership fight centers completely around inheritance rights with youth demanding future ownership while elders demand power-sharing arrangements with current State House occupant. Ruto watches entire spectacle from comfortable position thinking chaos works perfectly in his favor.

Kenyan Party Splits Never Heal Cleanly

ODM faces identical fate as previous major parties when internal divisions destroyed everything. Jubilee collapsed exactly same way through youth versus elder battles. Wiper barely survived similar fractures through painful compromises. Youth demand complete control of party machinery and nominations. Elders demand guaranteed power-sharing arrangements with Ruto government continuing indefinitely. Compromise appears completely impossible from current positions. Babu Owino leads ferocious street fight bringing masses into action. Winnie provides irreplaceable Odinga family blessing. Sifuna runs sophisticated party machinery behind scenes. Orengo writes comprehensive ideological documents. Wanga delivers valuable Ruto government alliance connections.

Ruto Needs Wanga For Female Running Mate Promise

Ruto desperately needs Wanga fulfilling female running mate constitutional promise while maintaining crucial Luo political bridge and securing ODM pragmatist voters through personal alliance. Wanga willingly accepts all associated political risks. Youth faction responds with complete explosion of opposition activities everywhere possible. Youth political calculations differ dramatically from elder pragmatism. Reclaim complete ODM organizational control. Beat Ruto candidates across every possible competitive position. Build sustainable next-generation leadership structure. Higher risk strategy carries potentially massive rewards long term.

Nobody Inherits Complete Legacy But Battle Continues

Babu dominates explosive Nairobi youth energy. Winnie commands emotional family voter pull. Sifuna masters sophisticated party organization. Orengo secures unbreakable Nyanza loyalty. Wanga controls powerful Ruto political machine. Real winner emerges from chaos itself giving Ruto tremendous short-term advantages through endless divisions. Long term picture shows mobilized youth opposition becoming increasingly dangerous threat to current power structure. 2027 elections test Raila’s true unbreakable political legacy through fire.

The battle rages fiercely but we all must remember Ruto must go for the betterment of our nation and humanity itself.