The landscape of Major League Baseball (MLB) player valuation is undergoing a significant recalibration as updated 2026 performance projections reveal stark deviations from previous expectations. According to the latest data from the ZiPS projection system, developed by analyst Dan Szymborski, the volatility of player development is forcing front offices to reconsider long-term roster construction and market strategies.

The most notable upward revisions involve players who transitioned from speculative prospects to reliable major league contributors during the 2025 season. Jakob Marsee of the Miami Marlins and Nick Kurtz of the Oakland Athletics have emerged as primary examples of this shift. Marsee, who posted a 133 wRC+ over 234 plate appearances, has defied initial algorithmic skepticism to solidify his standing as a legitimate major league starter. Similarly, Kurtz has validated high-level college data with professional success, reducing the “speculative” risk often associated with early-career power hitters.

From a strategic standpoint, the most impactful narrative involves the Seattle Mariners’ Cal Raleigh. Raleigh’s 2025 campaign was statistically historic for the catcher position, significantly elevating his projected Wins Above Replacement (WAR) and placing him on a trajectory traditionally associated with Hall of Fame candidates. Such an ascent not only increases a player’s individual leverage in contract negotiations but also alters the competitive equilibrium of the American League West.

Conversely, the projections highlight the inherent risks in over-relying on internal prospect development. The Baltimore Orioles, despite a period of acclaimed scouting, have seen a collective decline in the 2026 projections for their core offensive prospects, including Jackson Holliday, Colton Cowser, and Enrique Bradfield Jr. This data correlates with the franchise’s aggressive external acquisitions of veterans Pete Alonso and Taylor Ward, suggesting that modern front offices are increasingly using predictive modeling to trigger “win-now” pivots when internal growth plateaus.

The decline of formerly high-ceiling players like Jarred Kelenic further underscores the unforgiving nature of professional development. Kelenic’s Triple-A production has seen a steady erosion since 2021, with his 2025 metrics suggesting he may struggle to maintain a roster spot on merit alone. This trend reflects a broader phenomenon in the sports sector where the “aging curve” is being replaced by a “performance cliff” for players unable to adjust to major league pitching adjustments.

As the industry moves toward the 2026 season, these data shifts serve as a critical barometer for organizational health. Teams that successfully navigate these fluctuations, either by selling high on over-performing assets or pivoting away from declining prospects, will likely hold a significant competitive advantage in an era defined by analytical precision.

For further analysis on professional athlete market values, see our previous report: James Harden Identified as Primary 2026 NBA Trade Candidate.