The Orange Revolution is eating its own children

The Orange Democratic Movement is not just leaking. It is taking on water in a way that suggests the hull has finally snapped. For years, the party was a monolith. It was the undisputed voice of the disenfranchised and the bedrock of Nyanza politics. That era ended on 9 February 2026. The sight of James Orengo, a veteran of the second liberation and the current Governor of Siaya, being chased out of Ugunja town is not just a news snippet. It is a tectonic shift. The party is split between the “Linda Wananchi” faction and those who have embraced President William Ruto’s broad-based government. This is a civil war over the remains of a legacy left behind by the late Raila Odinga. The question is no longer whether ODM can win an election. The question is whether it can survive its own internal greed.

The reality is blunt. The faction led by Orengo and Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna is fighting a rearguard action against what they call an auction. They claim the party is being sold to the United Democratic Alliance for pieces of silver. On the other side, the faction led by Oburu Oginga sees a chance to finally touch the levers of power. They call it development. Orengo calls it betrayal. The public, caught in the middle, is confused and increasingly angry. The heckling in Ugunja, where youths chanted “Ruto two term,” was unthinkable just twenty four months ago. It suggests that the ground has shifted beneath the feet of the old guard. The loyalty that once belonged to the party is now being traded for the promise of immediate empowerment.

The Ugunja ambush and the death of loyalty

Ugunja was supposed to be a friendly stop. It is in the heart of Siaya. It is Orengo’s backyard. Yet, the Linda Wananchi tour hit a wall of noise and hostility. This was not a spontaneous outburst. It felt organised. It felt like a message. The youths who disrupted the speeches were clear. They wanted the government. They wanted the benefits of the broad-based deal. They were tired of being in the cold. When they shouted “Ruto two term,” they were not necessarily endorsing the President’s ideology. They were endorsing the reality of power. They were telling Orengo and Sifuna that their brand of principled opposition does not put food on the table.

The leaders were forced to flee. They left for Busia in a hurry. This is a massive blow to the ego of a man like Orengo. He has spent decades as the intellectual heartbeat of the opposition. To be silenced in his own county by youths who prefer his rival’s deal is a bitter pill. The disruption shows that the ODM splinter group is struggling to find its footing. They are trying to hold onto the old ways while the new generation is looking for a shortcut to the state house. The Linda Wananchi group is accusing the Oburu faction of failing the people, but in Ugunja, the people accused the Linda Wananchi group of failing to adapt. It is a messy, cynical feedback loop.

Busia and the desperate search for a base

The reception in Busia was different, but no less telling. Thousands lined the streets. The tension was thick. Goons had barricaded the highway earlier in the day. This is the new normal for Kenyan political tours. It is a game of who can hire the loudest voices or the strongest arms. Once the Linda Wananchi convoy arrived at the Busia stadium, the rhetoric turned poisonous. They did not just disagree with the other faction. They delegitimised them. They said they do not recognise the Oburu Oginga faction. This is a formal divorce in everything but name.

Orengo and Sifuna are leaning heavily on the “ten-point agenda.” This was the document supposedly signed by Ruto and the late Raila Odinga. The Linda Wananchi group claims this agenda has been ignored. They say they will not talk to the UDA until every point is met. It is a high-stakes gamble. If they refuse to join the broad-based deal, they risk being sidelined for the next five years. If they join, they lose their identity as the voice of the people. In Busia, they chose identity. They castigated the Oburu team for “auctioning” the party. They painted themselves as the last line of defence for the common man. It sounded good in a stadium. Whether it sounds good in the boardroom is another matter.

The shadow of the late Raila Odinga

You cannot talk about ODM without talking about the vacuum. The late Raila Odinga was the glue. He was the only person who could keep someone like James Orengo and someone like Oburu Oginga in the same room without a fight breaking out. With him gone, the glue has dried up and cracked. The fight for the party is also a fight for his ghost. Both sides claim to be the true heirs to his vision. The Oburu faction uses the family name to claim legitimacy. They argue that Raila wanted a peaceful transition and a hand in government. They see the broad-based deal as the ultimate fulfilment of the handshake era.

Orengo’s team sees it as a perversion of that vision. They argue that Raila never intended for the party to be swallowed by its rivals. They see the current cooperation as a surrender. This internal bickering is making the party look weak. While the leaders fight over who gets to represent the “real” ODM, the voters are moving on. Some are moving toward Ruto. Others are simply opting out of the process. The cynicism is palpable. People see the “broad-based” government as just another way for the elite to share the spoils while the cost of living continues to crush the average Kenyan.

The green colonization of Kenyan priorities

This political infighting is happening against a backdrop of a government that seems more interested in international praise than local survival. We have seen this pattern before. While the politicians in Busia and Ugunja argue over party leadership, the actual policy of the country is being steered by external forces. There is a growing sense that Kenya is being used as a laboratory for global initiatives. For instance, the discussion around The Green Colonization: Kenya’s Silent Sacrifice for Global Net-Zero highlights how the state often prioritises international climate goals over the immediate economic needs of its citizens.

The ODM factions are ignoring this reality. They are fighting over who gets to sit in the cabinet of a government that is increasingly beholden to foreign capital and global mandates. The “ten-point agenda” that Orengo mentions focuses on local issues, but the broad-based government is busy trying to position Kenya as a hub for “green” investments that often lead to land displacement and higher taxes for the poor. The disconnect is staggering. The Linda Wananchi group wants to “protect the people,” but they are focusing on party politics instead of the policy shifts that are actually hurting those people. They are arguing over who holds the steering wheel while the car is being driven off a cliff by global interests.

The Oburu faction and the pragmatism of power

Oburu Oginga is a seasoned player. He knows that in Kenya, being in opposition is a lonely, expensive business. His faction is not interested in the “ten-point agenda” as a hurdle. They see it as a talking point. Their real goal is integration. They want the ministries. They want the parastatal appointments. They want the budget. They argue that they can do more for Nyanza and the rest of the country from inside the tent. This is a classic Kenyan political move. It is the politics of the belly disguised as the politics of development.

They have successfully painted the Orengo group as “anti-development.” In Ugunja, this narrative worked perfectly. The youths who heckled Orengo were not chanting about the constitution or the ten-point agenda. They were chanting about Ruto because Ruto represents the treasury. The Oburu faction has convinced a significant portion of the base that the era of “resistance” is over. They are selling a future of cooperation and projects. It is a seductive message for a population that is tired of teargas and empty promises. The problem is that this pragmatism often comes at the cost of oversight. If ODM becomes part of the government, who is left to hold that government accountable? The answer is nobody.

A party divided cannot stand the 2027 heat

The road to the 2027 election is already being paved with these skirmishes. The Linda Wananchi tour was a litmus test, and the results were inconclusive at best. Busia gave them hope. Ugunja gave them a warning. The party is no longer a unified force. It is two separate entities wearing the same orange shirt. One is trying to preserve the dignity of the opposition. The other is trying to secure its financial future within the state machinery. This split is the best gift President Ruto could have asked for. He doesn’t need to defeat ODM if ODM is busy defeating itself.

The leaders of the Linda Wananchi group are in a tight spot. They cannot go back to the Oburu faction without looking like they have surrendered. They cannot move forward without a clear plan to replace the resources they have lost by staying out of the government deal. They are relying on the “wananchi” to support them, but as Ugunja proved, the “wananchi” are fickle. They are hungry. They are tired of rhetoric. If Orengo and Sifuna cannot show a tangible benefit to staying in the opposition, their movement will wither. They are currently shouting into a storm, hoping the wind will change direction.

The broader implications for Kenya are grim. Without a strong, unified opposition, the broad-based government will have a free hand to implement whatever policies it chooses, regardless of public opinion. The internal collapse of ODM means the end of the only political machine capable of challenging the status quo. The 10-point agenda will likely gather dust while the two factions continue to trade insults in stadiums across the country. The politicians are safe. They have their cars, their security, and their platforms. The people, however, are left with a choice between a government that doesn’t listen and an opposition that can’t agree on what to say.

The events in Ugunja and Busia are just the beginning. The tension will only escalate as the 2027 deadline approaches. We are watching the slow, painful disintegration of a political era. The orange is rotting from the inside out. The only thing left to see is who will be left standing when the fruit finally falls from the tree. There is no middle ground anymore. You are either with the deal or you are with the resistance. But in a country where the resistance is being heckled in its own heartland, the future looks increasingly like a one-party state wearing a “broad-based” mask. The question isn’t whether the deal is good for the country. The question is who gets the biggest slice of the cake before the party is over.

The silence from the top of the party hierarchy is the most telling part of this whole saga. There is no one to mediate. There is no one to call for order. The splintering will continue. The heckling will get louder. The barricades will be built higher. This is the new face of Kenyan politics: a chaotic, fragmented mess where loyalty is a commodity and the “ten-point agenda” is just a piece of paper used to justify a power grab. The people of Ugunja have spoken. The people of Busia have spoken. They are saying two completely different things, and the leaders are too busy fighting each other to hear either of them. The stage is set for a confrontation that will either redefine the party or destroy it entirely. There is no turning back now. The bridges are burnt. The orange has been squeezed dry. All that remains is the bitter taste of a deal that nobody truly understands but everyone is fighting over. The countdown to 2027 has started, and ODM is already running out of time.