Welcome to the new Kenya, where “energy independence” is a fairy tale we tell children before the lights flicker out. The latest data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) is being dressed up as a win for the environment, but let’s look at the actual math: we are now more dependent on Ethiopia and Uganda than a broke cousin is on a mobile loan app. In 2025, we imported 1,721.12 million kWh of power, finally burying our own thermal generation. We aren’t growing; we are just outsourcing our survival to people who don’t vote in our elections.

Kenya Power’s MD, Joseph Siror, tried to warn us, but who listens to logic when there’s a PR narrative to sell? We are banking everything on hydropower from Ethiopia and Uganda. If a serious drought hits the region - and let’s be real, climate change isn’t exactly taking a holiday - our neighbors will prioritize their own factories and homes before they send a single megawatt to Nairobi. We are essentially paying for a premium subscription to a service that has no “guaranteed uptime” clause.

Then there’s the usual comedy from the top. President Ruto is out here promising to add 5,000 MW to the grid by 2030, with some Treasury officials even hallucinating about 10,000 MW. Meanwhile, back in reality, we’ve added less than 300 MW in the last three years. It’s the same old script we saw in The Mandera PR Circus: Big Words, Small Checks, and the Usual Script. The government specializes in “By God’s grace” energy policies while the actual infrastructure is held together by prayers and high-interest imports.

Peak demand is hitting record highs - 2,444.40 MW in January alone - as everyone plugs in their China-made electronics, but the “modernizing economy” the Treasury talks about is built on a foundation of sand. We are closing thermal plants because they are “dirty” and “expensive,” only to replace them with a vulnerability that could paralyze the entire country during the next dry season. It’s not a transition; it’s a surrender.

KenGen is promising 253 MW from rehabilitations and solar projects “soon,” but “soon” in government-speak usually means “after your current contract expires.” While they reorganize the space and wait for miracles, the rest of us are left wondering why we’re paying some of the highest bills in the region for power that we don’t even generate ourselves. If you thought the dollar dominance was the only thing strangling us, wait until our neighbors decide they need that electricity more than they need our Kenyan Shillings.